I was called delusional
yesterday for believing in my team and remaining optimistic by stating that the loss was just one loss, and it didn't mean much. Maybe other Sox fans were just blowing smoke when they eschewed positivity like that, but I meant it. I knew the one thing we didn't need to do was assign too much to just one game. There are 162 in the season, after all, and the Sox have played pretty well for a good chunk of those.
Sure, the bullpen (specifically Okajima and Papelbon) got knocked around on Friday. But that happens. That one loss, though, made Yankees' fans so happy that they immediately claimed a
psychological edge over the Red Sox. That was somewhat laughable, but I needed the Red Sox to come out on Saturday and prove me right. And to do so, they would have to go against the Yankees' number one pitcher.
Luckily for the Sox, they had their own ace on the mound, in the form of one Mr. Josh Beckett. And Beckett did not disappoint. In fact, he was downright dominant, and Wang was very much not. The Red Sox got to Wang for five runs in just 5.2 innings, and it should have been more. But, I'll take it. Are the Yankees the better team, as Brian posited
yesterday? I don't think so.
And here's why: the Red Sox were absolutely demoralized on Friday. The Yankees were in control, had the so-called psychological edge, and were ready to win the rest of the way, doing their best to push the Red Sox out of the East lead, and maybe even out of the playoffs. A win Saturday for the Yankees might have deflated the Sox fan base and the team itself. They had their ace on the mound, and their hitters were ready. And what did the Yankees do? They hit the ball four times, once for extra bases. They were outplayed from the very beginning (after the glow of Jeter's home run, the only run the Yankees scored, wore off).
If you want some numbers to make you think twice about the Yankees being the better team, I've got them for you. Yes, the Red Sox bullpen sucked on Friday (but not on Saturday). They choked bigtime, and there is no denying that. But what about the starters? What do their numbers say about this series so far? As you look at the numbers, remember that these are the #1 and #2 starters for the Yankees that we're talking about.
Red Sox starters: 12.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 7 BB, 14 Ks (2.21 ERA)
Yankees starters: 9.2 IP, 18 H, 10 ER, 5 BB, 8 Ks (9.78 ERA)
Just so you don't think I'm ignoring the bullpen numbers, here they are:
Red Sox: 5.1 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 6 Ks (10.59 ERA)
Yankees: 7.1 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 7 BB, 12 Ks (8.87 ERA)
Overall, the Red Sox pitchers so far have a 4.50 ERA, and the Yankees' pitching staff has doubled that with a 9.00 ERA. Sure makes those Yankees seem like the better team, huh? The Red Sox offense has also outhit the Yankees 25-16 in the first two games, and outscored them 17-9.
Obviously, all of these numbers could change dramatically by Sunday's game. I just wanted to point out that a psychological edge sure looks different than I thought it would.
Yankee fans wanted Saturday's game. They wanted to beat the Red Sox best while watching the Red Sox lineup look silly against Wang. Turns out that things went exactly the opposite direction of that plan.
Hey, just for kicks, head over to read
Brian's post about why this loss is actually a good thing. It should make you chuckle a little bit (it gives you a bigger laugh if you keep in mind what he might be saying if his team had won the game). But hey, if Yankees' fans want to claim to be content with the Wild Card, the rest of us are fine with that. At least this way we know for sure which fan base is delusional. And we'll all be satisfied to see the Yankees lose in the first round anyway.
When I wrote about this series before it started, I said that the
Yankees would probably win on Friday, the Red Sox would win on
Saturday, and Sunday's game could go either way. I guess that makes me 67%
correct so far.
Oh, and when Youkilis got hit, I knew I would see a picture of him (and a glowing write-up about the incident)
here. It's getting a bit obsessive. Someone might have a little man-crush.
Player of the Game: Josh Beckett (7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 Ks)
Record: 90-59
Magic Number: 9
COMMENTS:
AUTHOR: Brian
DATE: 09/16/2007 03:22:45 AM
I take issue with the man-crush statement, mainly because Youkilis is in no way, shape or form, a man. By the way, did you know he's hitting .247 since May? I'm sure he cries himself to sleep at night about that.
I like the stats you chose to use here. I guess it's a compliment that you're comparing the ERAs of Sean Henn, Ron Villone, Ross Ohlendorf and Brian Bruney to Okajima and Papelbon. You're absolutely right, though. The Sox now know that if the Yanks bring any of those guys into a playoff game, they have a pretty good shot at scoring some runs. Just like the Yanks know they own Papelbon and Okajima.
By the way, in their last 5 appearances against the Yankees, Okajima and Papelbon have given up 11 earned runs in 4.1 innings of work.
So yes, if your starter gives you a great start and the Yankee starter has a bad game, you can probably be confident that you're going to win that game. (Boston's starters ERA against the Yankees is 6.06 on the season, including Beckett's gem today, so I don't think you can bank on quality starts out of that group.) If, however, you're playing a close game, are you confident that Papelbon and Okajima can get the job done? If you say yes, you are indeed delusional. I don't think even Papelbon and Okajima themselves could honestly say yes at this point.
So, the Yankees have routinely beat up on Boston's starting pitching (the aforementioned 6.06 ERA) and they've beaten up on the back end of the bullpen (the aforementioned 11 earned runs in 4.1 innings of work). So the odds are that they're going to put plenty of runs on the board and even if they're trailing late in the game, they have an ace up their sleeve because the Sox can't close a game out against them. I'd say that's a pretty solid psychological advantage.
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AUTHOR: Erin
DATE: 09/16/2007 12:14:27 PM
Your own post claimed that the Sox were riding on wins early in the season. Apparently, those games don't matter then, right? So I'm not using the stats. I'm talking about these two games, and specifically Saturday's, the one that the Yankees really wanted to win to prove their superiority. And they couldn't do it.
Just like you, I don't care what happened earlier in this season. I chose to use these stats because they're the ones that matter. The Yankees can take the Boston starters' 6.06 ERA and cry themselves to sleep on it after they lose the East.
As for our bullpen, I'm not worried. And call it delusional if you want. I don't know about Okajima. He's the one who's given up most of those eleven runs you noted. He's probably tired, and he was over-performing early in the season anyway. But Papelbon is solid. He's given up a solo home run to Rodriguez earlier in the year, and two runs on Friday. That's it. That his total collapse against the Yankees. Three runs. Rivera gave up four runs in one game to the Red Sox earlier in the year. I bet you'd trust him, though, huh? If Sunday's game is a one-run game in the ninth inning, I want Papelbon in the game, and I won't even think twice about it.
None of it matters anyway. Assuming the Yanks can hold on to the Wild Card, they'll lose in the first round and the Red Sox won't have to play them. Let them "own" Papelbon and Okajima tonight if it makes them feel better.
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AUTHOR: Erin
DATE: 09/16/2007 02:25:13 PM
The truth is, the numbers say a lot of things, and many of them are in the Yankees' favor. They've been the better team offensively this season, but their pitching has failed them. But the only numbers that matter right now are the records, and the Red Sox have the best of that one. And that's really all I care about. If they meet in the playoffs, however unlikely I think that is, nothing about the regular season will matter. If you believe in psychological edges, you have to believe the Red Sox have one, too, because no matter how hard the Yankees have tried, and how badly they've beaten the Red Sox, they just haven't been able to catch up.
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AUTHOR: Brian
DATE: 09/16/2007 03:35:18 PM
So to sum up your arguments:
1. The Sox have a better record, ha ha
2. Someone else is going to beat the Yanks anyway
3. What happened in the past doesn't matter (unless we're talking about the Sox record, which is better. Did I mention that?)
4. Okajima is tired, but Papelbon isn't, even though he was throwing 91 MPH the other day and got lit up like a Christmas tree.
5. The Yankees must demoralized because they only shaved 10 games off their deficit and turned a dismal season into a playoff berth.
Sox fans definitely aren't delusional, I retract all previous comments.
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AUTHOR: Erin
DATE: 09/16/2007 05:39:22 PM
1. Yep. Ha ha.
2. Indeed. And it will be fun to watch.
3. The numbers in the past don't matter. That was your big point about the early season for the Sox. I merely agreed, and stated that the only number that matters is the record. And the Sox record is the best one out there.
4. Okajima is tired. Pap had a bad night. It's the only night his velocity has been down thus far, and I guarantee it will be better the next time around. After all, you were allowed to be optimistic after Rivera blew a couple of saves this year, right?
5. The Yankees' fans were convinced they would win yet another A.L. East title this year. Getting into the playoffs isn't enough, and if I had told you at the beginning of the year that you would only (maybe) get the Wild Card, you would not be happy. It's fine to change your tune once things don't go your way, and then convince yourselves that all you really wanted was a playoff berth any way you could get it, but we all know the truth. You know as well as I do that it should have never been a dismal season for the Yankees to begin with, so I guess you can be proud for underperforming and still (maybe) making it to the playoffs. Congrats.
You call it delusional, and I'll call it optimism. I checked with a few people to be sure, and it turns out I'm still allowed to be happy about my team having a 5.5 game lead with thirteen games to play. You had me confused for a bit, and for a while there I thought I was supposed to turn on my team because they lost a game. Good thing I figured it out.
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AUTHOR: Brian
DATE: 09/16/2007 06:16:18 PM
You see, here's the funny thing. The Yankees team you see right now is nothing like the Yankees team you saw back in April and May. That team had significant injuries to its rotation, no cohesion in its bullpen, it was old and it was not performing. That's why the Yanks had a .420 winning percentage on May 29th.
Since then, the Yanks have owned not only the Sox, but pretty much the entire league. Their winning percentage has been .643, the best in baseball. They've reworked their roster, and they are a better team now.
Boston, on the other hand, had a .706 winning percentage on that date. The best in the game. Since then, they've played at an adequate .551 winning percentage, but they have become a worse team. Youkilis has hit under .250 since that date, Dice K's perfomance has been dismal, to say the least, the only significant move they made (Gagne) has actually hurt their team more than helping it.
So you can point at the overall record and take solace in all of those wins you pile up early in the season, but in all honesty, the only thing you can really do is cross your fingers and pray that someone else knocks the Yankees off either before or during the playoffs, because they are, in fact, the better team right now. Who was the better team in May doesn't really mean much.
Winning the division is obviously preferred, but getting to the playoffs is the only thing that matters. That's true at the beginning of the season and at the end. I don't judge a Yankee season by their seeding at the beginning of the playoffs, rather by how they finish once they get there. That's always been the case.