Sunday, February 22, 2009

Oscar Picks

I liked a lot of films this year, but for some reason still find myself less than enthused about watching the Oscars tonight. But, I will be watching, and though I'm of the firm belief that Wall-E should have been nominated as Best Picture, and not just Best Animated Film, I will still share with you my predictions about tonight's event.  Just for the major categories, though. You don't care about the rest.

Keep in mind, please, that these are those that I think will win tonight, not necessarily the ones that I think should win.  There is a difference, which I will explain in my comments.


ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler (I really liked his performance, so I'm on board with this one.)


ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight (I just don't see any way he will lose.)


ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Kate Winslet, The Reader (the Academy wants to give this to her. I'm torn, though, because Streep is a favorite, too.  I haven't seen Rachel Getting Married or Frozen River, but I hear Anne Hathaway and Melissa Leo, respectively, are amazing.  So what I'm saying is, I'd like to see Kate Winslet win because I LOVE her, and I think the Academy will want to make up for shutting her out when she had better performances in the past.  But I don't think I'll be too disappointed with how this one pans out.)


ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (I loved her as Benjamin's mother, and I think she'll be rewarded.  But don't be surprised to see Marisa Tomei picking up her second statue, and maybe having more rumors start about how someone read the wrong name off the ballot.  God, I loved Amy Adams in Doubt, too, though.  This is a good category.)


ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Wall-E.  No questions asked.  If Bolt wins, I will throw something at my television.


COSTUME DESIGN (I'm skipping other "artsy" categories because costume design has a special place in my heart, on account of my fiancé being thanked twice (so far) in Oscar speeches in this category.)

Milk (I don't know why.  The voters are always so weird in this category, so it's always a bit of a crapshoot.  All the nominees are for period movies, so I think the votes are probably pretty split on this one, so I'm just going with my gut.  For the record, my fiancĂ©, the assistant costume designer, is going with her dark horse, Australia, but thinks The Duchess is the frontrunner.  She thinks I'm stupid to go with Milk, but I don't care.  I'm doing it.)


DIRECTING

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire (This is a great movie, and Boyle did a great job.  The hype on this has been bigtime, so I think the Academy will hand Boyle an Oscar.  But I don't know how you can ignore Fincher's work on The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.  I don't know. Either will be okay, I guess, but Boyle will probably get it.)


WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

Doubt (I'd like to see Button get this one, but the Academy often likes talky scripts that come from the stage, so we'll likely see John Patrick Shanley take one home.)


WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

Milk (it's a gay movie that was well written and well put together. Not a bad choice, though I would just go bananas if the voters would give this to the most original movie of the year, Wall-E.)


BEST PICTURE (skipping right to this one because I can't be bothered to pick the "sound editing" categories or anything like that)

Slumdog Millionaire (again, I loved this movie.  A lot.  But my heart wants Button to win.  And my mind tells me Slumdog will get it.)



After the show, I'll come back to make a note of how well I did in these ten categories (wrong picks will be in red).  My prediction: I'll probably miss every category.  I'm historically terrible at these picks.  And now I'm putting them out on the internet for the world to see.  How brave.

9 comments:

Erin said...

All right, the first award is in, and I couldn't be more disappointed. Penelope Cruz's performance in Vicky Cristina Barcelona is the only one I didn't see, but I still feel like any one of the other nominees was robbed. Boo. Terrible start.

But Hugh Jackman's opening performance was pretty awesome. And Steve Martin and Tina Fey are fucking amazing. So things are getting better.

Erin said...

So far I'm 1/3, but I really liked Slumdog, so it's okay. And it was really important that Milk win because of that speech the writer gave.

Now let's pray for Wall-E.

Erin said...

I've got people in my living room who don't agree that Heath Ledger should have won for The Dark Knight. I disagree vehemently. Loved his performance, and think the Academy voters did the absolute right thing in voting for a guy who won't ever have another chance to win.

Erin said...

It's been hard for me to like Jerry Lewis, ever since I learned of his bigotry:

http://www.365gay.com/news/jerry-lewis-again-calls-gays-fags/

I know he's done a lot of work for kids, but that doesn't make up for that kind of behavior.

Erin said...

Good for Danny Boyle. It's obvious the voters are in love with Slumdog (and rightly so). I think picking it for Best Picture was the right move.

Erin said...

I'm so glad Kate Winslet won. It would have been good to see Meryl up there, but Kate's body of work is so awesome that I fully believe in her right to win. How can you not find that woman so endearing? Fabulous.

Erin said...

I liked Milk, and I think it's an important movie, but I don't think Sean Penn should have won. Ugh. I should have known they would pick him.

Erin said...

Yay for Slumdog! That makes me 6/10. I can handle that. Overall, good show. A little slow in the middle, but I like a lot of changes that they made this year. Good show, Academy.

Bruce Paine said...

I didn't see any of them. Uh...but good post. Tasking a break from all your worries sure does help a lot.