Keep in mind, please, that these are those that I think will win tonight, not necessarily the ones that I think should win. There is a difference, which I will explain in my comments.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler (I really liked his performance, so I'm on board with this one.)
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight (I just don't see any way he will lose.)
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Kate Winslet, The Reader (the Academy wants to give this to her. I'm torn, though, because Streep is a favorite, too. I haven't seen Rachel Getting Married or Frozen River, but I hear Anne Hathaway and Melissa Leo, respectively, are amazing. So what I'm saying is, I'd like to see Kate Winslet win because I LOVE her, and I think the Academy will want to make up for shutting her out when she had better performances in the past. But I don't think I'll be too disappointed with how this one pans out.)
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (I loved her as Benjamin's mother, and I think she'll be rewarded. But don't be surprised to see Marisa Tomei picking up her second statue, and maybe having more rumors start about how someone read the wrong name off the ballot. God, I loved Amy Adams in Doubt, too, though. This is a good category.)
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Wall-E. No questions asked. If Bolt wins, I will throw something at my television.
COSTUME DESIGN (I'm skipping other "artsy" categories because costume design has a special place in my heart, on account of my fiancé being thanked twice (so far) in Oscar speeches in this category.)
Milk (I don't know why. The voters are always so weird in this category, so it's always a bit of a crapshoot. All the nominees are for period movies, so I think the votes are probably pretty split on this one, so I'm just going with my gut. For the record, my fiancé, the assistant costume designer, is going with her dark horse, Australia, but thinks The Duchess is the frontrunner. She thinks I'm stupid to go with Milk, but I don't care. I'm doing it.)
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire (This is a great movie, and Boyle did a great job. The hype on this has been bigtime, so I think the Academy will hand Boyle an Oscar. But I don't know how you can ignore Fincher's work on The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. I don't know. Either will be okay, I guess, but Boyle will probably get it.)
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Doubt (I'd like to see Button get this one, but the Academy often likes talky scripts that come from the stage, so we'll likely see John Patrick Shanley take one home.)
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Milk (it's a gay movie that was well written and well put together. Not a bad choice, though I would just go bananas if the voters would give this to the most original movie of the year, Wall-E.)
BEST PICTURE (skipping right to this one because I can't be bothered to pick the "sound editing" categories or anything like that)
Slumdog Millionaire (again, I loved this movie. A lot. But my heart wants Button to win. And my mind tells me Slumdog will get it.)
After the show, I'll come back to make a note of how well I did in these ten categories (wrong picks will be in red). My prediction: I'll probably miss every category. I'm historically terrible at these picks. And now I'm putting them out on the internet for the world to see. How brave.